Are you sure global warming is a hoax?

6/28/2008 -

History may include stories of nations, people and companies who successfully looked the future in the eye and said, “I’ll do nothing.” The trouble is it’s hard to find any whip makers, Vikings or envoys from Siam to ask about that. History is littered with people who doubted change was coming, lacked the ability to respond or had too much ingrained interest in the status quo to alter their course. Global warming has the potential to prompt similar responses. Wait. Don’t scream “enviro-nut!” and throw down this paper until you’ve read the rest of this. You could be exactly right. Maybe global warming is just something the science academies of G8 countries made up “so some people could make some money.” Maybe climate change isn’t caused by higher carbon levels in the atmosphere, and there would be no benefit in cutting emissions. And maybe there really is a secret cult that worships Al Gore, hugging trees collectively by moonlight. But are you sure? Are you certain most scientists in the world are wrong, deluded or supporting global warming just to receive grants? It’s good to remember that among the scientific community global warming is the majority opinion. Wouldn’t it make sense, even if you doubt global warming, to still take precautions––in case the researchers aren’t complete fools? We don’t have to sign on whole hog and shut down the economy or require everyone to drive hybrids. But if you have grandkids or any concern for future generations, isn’t the safe (dare we say conservative) policy the one where we check things out to see if a publicized problem might be a real one. Having safe air, food and drinking water for our kids’ kids does seem like a reasonable idea. Luckily, the consequences of sitting idle probably don’t amount to much––maybe just minor losses. If all the polar bears die, is that really so big a deal? It’s been a long time since we saw a real snow in Pickens County (the kind that shut down schools for a week), and no one seems any worse off. If the planet’s a tad hotter, that probably won’t matter a lot. Besides, this could all be natural. There’s still some doubt in a few minds, including some respected scientific ones, as to the real cause of climate change. But what if there is a shred of truth to predictions? What if sea levels do rise and weather becomes more unstable: longer droughts, drier summers? No doomsday called for here, but conditions making the world less hospitable are nothing to ignore. If you went to the doctor, and he found a lump, would “It’s probably nothing,” make you ignore it? If your mechanic said, “Brakes sound a little funny,” would you get them checked? Most of the time, dire consequences and threats turn out benign, causing nothing worse than worry. Sensible people still take precautions. Global warming deserves the same let’s-prepare-for-the-worst-and-hope-for-the-best approach. Many of the issues involved in global warming (if it actually exists) warrant study and action anyway. Even if it only saves a glacier or two, looking into tailpipe pollution, new fuel sources and fuel efficiency aren’t wasted exercises. If global warming turns out to be a hoax foisted on the weak-minded, it wouldn’t be the first time the world has over-reacted. Forgetting the expense, are you any worse off for your Y2K preparations? Fifty years from now, if global warming proves to be a bunch of hot air, that photo of you and your Prius might be embarrassing, like a bad 70’s haircut. But it’s hard to see the harm in taking sensible steps regarding air pollution and energy policy. On the other hand, descending into history as the generation who ignored scientists and sat by while pollution irreversibly damaged the planet would qualify us as The Worst Generation. It’s kind of like that flutter in your heart: “Probably nothing, but it wouldn’t hurt to get it checked out.”