UPDATE ON THE STATUS OF H1N1 2009 (SWINE FLU)
May 5, 2009
The status of the spread of H1N1 2009 (Swine Flu) changes by the hour and can be confusing for anyone depending on the mainstream media for their information. As of this morning the World Health Organization (WHO) has documented 1124 cases in 21 countries with 25 deaths. In the US there have been 279 documented cases in 36 states with one death. The actual number of cases worldwide is probably 10 times the reported cases with possibly more deaths. In fact, the CDC has decided to report “probable cases” along with documented cases because the latter can be misleading.
This may sound alarming to some but in fact it appears that the severity of the illness is about that of our seasonal flu. Of course, you know that is nothing to sneeze at (no pun intended) if you have ever been unfortunate enough to have actual influenza. The fever, headache and joint and muscle aches can be miserable and keep you out of work or school for a week or more with complete recovery delayed for weeks to follow. The illness from this virus seems to “relatively benign” but the operative word is “relatively”.
Even if the WHO elevates the Alert Level to Phase 6, a full blown pandemic, it may represent nothing more than a bad “flu season”. The actual rate and scope of the spread that would initiate Phase 6 is not nearly as critical to the world’s population as the severity…. which at this time seems to be “relatively mild”. Acknowledged experts agree that it is not possible to predict with any level of certainty what this virus will do over the coming months. It could range from a complete fizzle, never to be heard from again, to a mild first wave now and a second wave of much more serious severity occurring in the fall. Like most viruses, the influenza A virus is unpredictable.
The most prudent course at this time is one of “proportional response”. There seems to be no reason to close borders, close schools or avoid public transportation including airplanes. However, local circumstances should be taken into consideration with a response proportional to illness activity. On a personal basis the precautions are unchanged: Avoid people with “colds” (upper respiratory illness), wash your hands and or use alcohol gels frequently, and stay home from school or work if you have fever or other symptoms of influenza.
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